India Will Bounce Back Quick and There is a Sad Reason Behind

There are no signs if Coronavirus taking a back seat in India. In fact, new cases and deaths are at an all-time high. From being nowhere in the tally, India steadily climbed in the top 10 nations worst hit by COVID pandemic. As I write this India ranks 5th in the world.

Global COVID Tally
Global COVID Tally as on June 7 (Source: Bloomberg Quint)

And the worst part is that the daily growth rate is at an all-time time high which further means that India will soon surpass more nations very soon. All this amidst claims from other nations that the country is not conducting enough tests.

Daily COVID Cases in India
Daily COVID Cases in India

That sounds like a worrisome story, isn't it? Let's see another side of India.

On one hand, where the COVID impact is at an all-time high, the fear of the virus is at an all-time low. From the time lockdown has eased in the country, people are flocking in markets, making purchases (largely essentials) and are sounding more relaxed than before

Numbers suggest a rapid recovery in FMCG. By the last week of May, FMCG companies were already operating at 80-90% capacity. There is a quick recovery in the AC business. AC companies which were almost writing off this season are surprised with the response they have from consumers from the time lockdown has eased.

FMCG Recovery in India Covid

Sensex has shown rapid recovery and is at a high since the steep fall it witnessed when the virus hit the nation.

Sensex Recovery Post Lockdown
Sensex Recovery Post Lockdown

Narratives have Changed

Govt advertising now talks not about corona prevention but stating that 80% of infected cases have minor symptoms and can be cured at home

News channels which were counting Corona number through the day have now restricted it to a 'Corona Bulletin'. Of course, in the lockdown, they had no other news not they have rejuvenating economy and news due to lockdown ease to talk of.

Print Ad stressing on Home Isolation in COVID
Print Ad stressing on Home Isolation in COVID

Why is the fear of COVID dosing off?

Luckily, India's mortality rate due to COVID is low compared to other nations (around 2.8% as on date). So basically, 97.2% of infected people will come out of it safely. Again if we further break 2.8%, it is primarily elderly (60+) or people with pre-existing ailments.

India Covid Mortality Rate
India's COVID Mortality Rate is at 2.8%

India is primarily a young population with more than 90% people below 60 yrs of age as per Census 2010. So a large part of the population thinks that even if they are infected, they will come out of it. Consequently, the fear of the virus is at an all-time low.

Age Wise Population of India as per Census 2010
AgeWise Population of India as per Census 2010

Will there be a quick economic recovery? 

Yes, we surely can expect one and there is a sad reason behind it. The world's second-most populous doesn't value human life to the extent that other nations do.
Going by simple economics of supply and demand, with the kind of supply we have of people their value is ought to be less. Let me draw another analogy from the digital world. The CPM (approx. earning when a publisher gets a 1000 views on his website) in India is anywhere between half or one-third for the same content being viewed by the same set of audience in UK. Making it simple, reaching out to a 1000 eyeballs is almost half as rewarding as reaching out to a 1000 eyeballs in UK. This indirectly tells us the story of how life in the country is valued.

So what could we expect now?

To be honest, economic recovery will happen quickly because people will soon forget counting number of cases as media channels shift their focus on other news owing to opening up of other activities in the nation. People will be least bothered about infections knocking the door next to them. The only time one is directly effected will be when he himself gets the infection of someone in his near or dear ones get it.

Amid all this, I am not sure to be happy or sad. What about you?


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